If the election were held today and not next Tuesday, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump could be looking at a historic win.
The trend lines show he was gaining on his Democratic Party counterpart, Hillary Clinton, well before the news broke that the FBI was reopening its investigation into her use of a private email server while secretary of state. But since then, her numbers have been tanking even harder.
Of the so-called battleground states in this election, Clinton currently leads in only two, and both of them are within the margin of error. And there’s more bad news to be had in the form of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Based on current polling data, Trump has a very good chance of winning:
- Florida
- Ohio
- Colorado
- North Carolina
- Iowa
- Nevada
- Wisconsin
- Virginia
- Georgia
- New Hampshire
- Arizona
He’s currently tied with Clinton in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, while Clinton leads by less than a point in Maine and Michigan, and by just 2.5 points in New Mexico and just 2.7 points in Oregon. All three are trending in his direction. But at this moment, he’s poised for a 301-207 lead in the Electoral College with 30 votes pending.
If all six states were swing his way, his lead would grow to 363-175.
In Vermont, however, Clinton and the Democrats are dealing with a third-candidate problem that’s largely been unreported outside the state. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)—who has been urging his fellow Vermonters to cast their ballots for Clinton—could win enough write-in votes to put the state “in play” for Trump.
Vermont voters can vote for literally anyone for president, using the write-in method. Those votes do count. And only a plurality of votes is necessary to win the state’s three electoral votes—but it could have a tidal wave affect throughout the New England states.
Also, there’s the fact that many of the states not declared “battlegrounds” by the liberal mainstream media aren’t even being polled. It’s been two months since Connecticut voters were polled, but previous polls had the race there tied between Trump and Clinton.
Hawaii voters haven’t been polled at all.
The shift hasn’t gone unnoticed. Trump began campaigning in Michigan, Nevada and New Mexico last weekend. And Tuesday morning, his campaign announced it has expanded its TV advertising footprint to include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire.
“The data clearly shows that Mr. Trump’s message is reaching voters and we are expanding the map,” the campaign’s digital director, Brad Parscale, said. “This addition to our already aggressive paid media outreach illustrates Mr. Trump’s commitment to reaching out to all voters in must-win states before Election Day.
“While Mr. Trump continues to climb in the polls and accelerate outreach in states like Michigan and New Mexico that are rarely won by Republican presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton is preoccupied fighting the sitting FBI director and President Obama over yet another email scandal. By increasing our presence in battleground states and expanding into new markets, Mr. Trump is well-positioned for an impressive victory on Nov. 8.”
